Anticipating
Possible Futures
Futures of Books
Maga Trend for 2030
Books in 2030
More interesting
functions
e.g video / motion
Extended functions
of ebooks
Live reading
Interactive
functions
Personal adjustment
e.g. font / layout
Real time virtual
sharing forum
More creative
printed book design
i.e. 5 sense of experience
Audiobook for
special needs reader
Paper texture
and print effect
Different
flavors of page
Unique smell
of books
Video attached
/ AR effect
Reading Medium in 2030
Channels of Books in 2030
Maga Trend for 2030
Social
Online purchasing in Hong Kong
In 2030, online shopping will become the most popular way to purchase among youth and young adults. People will get used to various shopping platforms by using smart devices. Shopping experience will be enhanced in different ways, like payment methods, delivery, after-sales service etc. purchasing in online bookstores will become a daily practice in near future.
Reading habitat still not very high
In order to cultivate reading culture in Hong Kong, different parties like the government, schools and bookstores will consequently launch promotions and campaigns on reading. Yet people’s reading habitat will not be effectively enhanced, because they still face the similar problem as nowadays: people will find too much entertainment rather than reading; Students may escape from books due to high study pressure; People may get used to learning new knowledge and skills through other methods, like watching video.
Localization against globalization and other cultures
Homogeneity due to globalization and cultural invasion from other cities have lead Hong Kong people to discover and appreciate the value of local cultures in recent years. In 2030, people will protect and preserve their own culture against the cultural invasion. Supporting local business will be one of the popular trends.
Emphasize on personal identity
Rise of social media will form online communities. People will be eager to show their identity and social status on the internet. Also, more people will become content creators (i.e. bloggers, youtubers, etc) in order to gain their popularity. Reading, holding books and visiting a bookstore will become a symbol of vintage literature youth, to reflect a smart and positive image.
Maga Trend for 2030
Technological
IOT - Internet of Things and Big Data
5G technology will be maturely implemented to sustain IoT development. Citizens will be benefited from technological advancements like real-time translation, smart mobility and smart living, while entrepreneurs will utilize the technology to manage business regardless of time and place. Corporations will collect big data to analyse customers’ activity and behavior to make decisions on future plans.
AI &
Machine learning
AI chatbot is already applied in various ecommerce platforms, this technology will be continuously enhanced to smoothen customers’ journey. People will enjoy visiting online bookstores with excellent shopping experience, including personal recommendations, convenient delivery, presolved potential problems and so on.
Evaluation of devices and softwares
New generation of ebook devices with improved reading experience and advanced functions will be launched. Content and form of books could be more flexible, like some books may include videos and motion pictures to demonstrate profound information or abstract concepts; customers could adjust layout to entertain different readers’ habitats; Contents or quotes could be shared immediately with friends in the reading device. With technological improvement, the existing augmented reality (AR) implemented for product visualization may be also applied in reading, virtual reality (VR) reading may also be introduced in order to gain different senses of experience, like smelling of books, listening to audio books, etc.
3D print books
A report launched by Strategy Analytics in the US predicted that there will be more than half of all homes to own 3D printers by 2030. 3D printers will become a common electrical appliance at home or in the office. By using the commercial or consumer 3D printers, customers will be able to purchase goods online and print it by themselves. Books can also be tailor-made by adjusting the specifications, like wider choices of paper texture, size, and even the content.
Maga Trend for 2030
Economic
Sharing economy
The concept of the sharing economy has been voted as the top 10 creative concepts that may change the world in 2011. This concept has been applied in various industries in Hong Kong for decades, including bike-sharing service, co-working space, and sharing of second-hand clothings. With increasing environmental awareness and sharing platforms, people may be more willing to exchange tangible books in the future. and the sharing concept should be easier to apply to ebooks through online platforms.
Growing global economy
Economics experts anticipate that the economy of most countries will recover after COVID-19, especially Asia countries like China and India will rebound significantly. In 2030, Asia countries may dominate more than 30% of the global GDP. Under the positive prospect of economic growth, people will have higher purchasing power to consume luxury and leisure goods. People are willing to pay more for better service and qualitative products.
Local economic circle
Yellow economic circle is a new concept raised in 2019, which is a labelling system to classify shops whether they are at the side of supporting social movement in 2019. This reflects Hong Kong people tend to patronise businesses that share the same values. The yellow economic concept may restructure Hong Kong’s economy if people keep supporting local consumption, against over relying on luxury consumption by Chinese tourists. Moreover, the local economic awareness leads people alert on supporting small-scale stores, this may help stimulate local businesses. People tend to support independent bookstores rather than large chain of bookstores like the Commercial Press Hong Kong and Joint Publishing (Hong Kong) Company Limited.
Maga Trend for 2030
Environmental
Environmental concern
Climate change and global warming are still important issues in the coming future. Consumers may be more concerned on how to consume with least damage to the environment, like boyscroting the fast fashion brands and supporting sustainable and ethical brands in Hong Kong. With the rise of environmental awareness, customers will choose wisely to support the brands that are taking action to alleviate the harm to the Earth. Corporations may take social responsibilities as one of development direction, which may put more efforts on environmental protection.
Green consumption
A survey conducted in 2016 showed that 75% of Hong Kong consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable products that are good for the environment. This reflects that the community has already developed a sense of eco-friendly consumption. In 2030, it is estimated that over 70% of shops will not provide any packages or bags, in order to sustain the concept of shop naked and plastic-free, and young generations are more willing to choose eco-friendly products, thus young consumers may also tend to choose paperless ebooks to replace tangible books for environmental reasons.
Maga Trend for 2030
Political
Government regulations on
e-commerce
Online shops and platforms are developed as a virtual community, and the government will introduce regulations to maintain the online market, including security of payments, inspection of online fraud and privacy issues etc. With these regulations, consumers will feel more safe and secure in online transactions, thus encouraging the trend of online shopping.
Freedom of publications
As long as the constitutional principle of “One Country, Two Systems” is still implemented, Chinese government will not blatantly interrupt Hong Kong’s freedom of publication. But after the “Causeway Bay Books disappearances”, concerning five staff members of Causeway Bay Books disappeared and found guilty in mainland China, it is worried that the incidence may seriously destroyed the design of the Basic Law, the principle of “One Country, Two Systems” and freedom of publications, publication companies felt stressful by the threat of violating Chinese political regulations. As the system will expire in 2047, people may think twice to consume and keep sensitive books, while content of books will be under strict inspections by companies’ management levels in order to avoid violating government’s policies.
Future Cone of Reading
Market Trend: 3 Horizons
Mckinsey's Three Horizons Model
Horizon 1
Traditional bookstores like the Commercial Press, Joint publishing HK and Chung Hwa Book Company are the existing largest publishing companies providing book selling services. These companies are market-oriented, which provides books with comparable prices. These choices of products are driven by the market, the shop keepers would choose famous and potential books for customers. These companies entertain basic customer services, like face-to-face information consultation in shops and cashiers. They also adopt traditional promotion strategies like seasonal discount, printed posters and TV commercials.
Horizon 2
By understanding customer needs, some companies like Eslite and Amazon improve its service according to and emphasize on customer experience. They adopted the existing strengths and technological innovations, more aggressively approaching potential customers. They are not merely selling books, but also providing a reading atmosphere to attract customers. Compared to traditional bookstores, these companies put more effort and emphasis on gaining the credibility of its customers, making customers believe that they could have an excellent experience in purchasing books with high quality service.
Horizon 3
With technological enhancement, companies are capable of developing creative solutions to improve customer experience. Customer-oriented marketing will be the new trend in the future business development strategies. Companies will be able to collect and analyze big data to anticipate the future needs of customers. By adopting creative promotions, like product demonstrations, campaigns of free trials, embedded advertisement into movies or games, companies may create incentive to trigger customers to purchase the products or services.
3 Horizons — Customer Journey
Recognise a book promotion
Want to buy some books with discount
Visit the bookstore
Pick books
Go to cashier to finish payment
Window shopping
in a mall
Find out a sharing event on app/ IG / FB
Attracted by KOL
Product
demonstrations
Nice reading atmosphere
Personal
recommandation
Free
trials
Creative promotions
Interested in the book
Visiting the art gallery /
having tea / buying fresh brand products
Participate
in the sharing talk
product recommended
by KOL
Recognised the bookstore is just next to it
Search books
from platforms/ channels
Interested in the topic and want to buy related books
Extended service e.g Donate second hand books
After-sale service
Visiting the bookstore
Go to cashier to finish payment
Share the nice moment
on IG / FB
Interested in the product
Rate the book
Visiting the
bookstore or ebookstore
Online payment/
auto payment
Membership subscription in books platform / Apply the plan in streaming media
Direct read in the book platform
Opinions
collection
Encourage to be the next KOL
to promote books
After-sale
service
Membership
promotion
(Direct Sales)
Personal
recommandation
Scenario
Amy
(40, Female)
Status
Education Level
Occupations
Hobbies
Difficulties
Desires
#3D print books
#membership service
#tailor made books
#ebooks and tangible books
#different materials for books
One day in the morning, after making breakfast for her 2 children, Amy goes to her working place by uber. Suddenly she finds that she has forgotten to prepare some reference books for the coming meeting. She opens an App named “My3DBooks” and types some key words. According to her shopping record, some related books and specific pages have been shown on the screen. Amy chooses to buy both ebooks and tangible books. She then selects the specification of books -
- paper: cycling paper;
- font size: medium;
... and selects a few specific pages for larger size of paper; She confirms the materials and the 3D printer in her office started to make the book.
In her office, the book is already printed by the 3D printer, lying on her desk. It is an artistic book, the hard paper has formed an architecture, just like an art piece. Amy opens the door and takes the 3D printed book for checking. She rated the book 4.5 stars, and left comments: “tangible book production is very quick, with quality layout for presentation; But ebook version is not as expected- some hyperlink are missing and no sound for video demonstration in chapter 13, which makes me have to search it on another browser and focus on subtitle in video.”
The CS text box shown within 1 min: “Morning Amy, we apologize for the mistake, the hyperlink problem has just been corrected, and the video has already downloaded in your device, you may turn on it and watch it again. We may offer you an extra 5% discount for next purchasing for the appreciation of reporting the issue. Have a nice day!”
Day of a life
Married, 2 children
Master degree
Supervisor in a museum
Watching movies, visiting exhibitions
Limited time for personal activities / Busy working schedule
More entertainment in leisure time
Luca
(30, Male)
Status
Education Level
Occupations
Hobbies
Difficulties
Desires
Single, lived alone
Bachelor Degree
Game developer
Playing online games
Want to improve himself, but reading is too boring
Self enhancement
Luca is sitting on a sofa in his flat, wearing a VR headset and holding a pair of joysticks. He is now inside an online game, exploring a new world with his teammates, the virtual partner Nora and his friend Jim. He has been attracted by the book held by Nora, and moves his “red spot” in the virtual world to select the book. A pop up information box appears
“Find the extinct animals on Earth | a book about species of animals and its characteristics.”
Day of a life
There are several people in the room, with a pet sitting nearby, everyone is helding a book in this virtual room. Suddenly he recognises that this is the first time he joins an online book-sharing community in the virtual world, he hears from friends about this kind of group but never joins. He picks a book in the bookshelf and starts to read. Until mid-night a soft music rings, Luca puts down the book and finds it is time to go to bed. He never thought he would enjoy reading again, yes he was a book-lover before obsessed with playing video games, but this time the game provides him an incentive to read again. He enjoys reading and discussing with those new friends, and he can’t wait to pick another book tomorrow!
Luca is quite interested in this topic, and selects to read more. He enjoys VR reading in his virtual world, which the book is attached to in the game. He found that some information is quite useful in the coming challenges of the game, so he quoted the paragraph and shared it with his partner Jim. An advertisement message box on the screen caught Luca’s attention: “Would you like to join our group? We all love animals.” Luca selects yes and joins the team in a room.
#VR reading
#sharing of books
#embed product advertisement in games
Hailey
(18, Female)
Status
In relation with her boyfriend for 2 years
Studying S.6
Student
Cooking , Reading
Study pressure
Experience more, enjoy life, escape from boring busy study life
Day of a life
This is a special day to Hailey, she and her boyfriend, Aiden, are going to celebrate their 2nd anniversary. After participating in a cake-making workshop in a shopping mall, Hailey looks at the list of suggested books provided by a robot, she decides to buy a dessert cookbook and practice at home. Hailey can’t find a suitable book in the book vending machine outside the workshop, the robot suggests they go to the bookstore on the upper floor.
Another robot recognises Hailey and asks what kind of service she wants:
/ Find cookbooks /
/ Find other books /
/ Just visiting /
Hailey chooses “Find cookbooks” and tells the robot some keywords. The robot brings them to the “Cooking” bookshelf with all book covers facing the customers, like a front page of an online bookstore. The robot gives Hailey the iPad and suggests some books for her, so that she can check the book details on the iPad and pick the books.
Hailey choose three cookbooks, the first one is “Cook with friends”, this book provides menu for readers, and attached with a form and QR code, which readers can order food and materials directly.
The second book is an audiobook with sound control, steps will be played when you give an order, so that your hands can be free for cooking.
The third one is “5 Senses of food”, the book smells good, and some pages can be sliced down to taste.
#visiting bookstore
#5 sense of books
#excellent customer experience
#automatic macchines
#AI #Omni bookstores
Education Level
Occupations
Hobbies
Difficulties
Desires
When Hailey and Aiden pass the bookstore door, the payment is processed automatically . Aiden helps to put the books into his bag as no package bags will be provided. They go to the cafe near the bookstore, it is absolutely a relaxing place because free drinks and snacks are offered for customers. Hailey feels satisfying on this day, as everything goes smoothly!
Conclusion
Our lives have been changed deeply by technologies and the internet in the past 20 years, life patterns have become faster in pace, more convenient and more comfortable. However, some industries have been or will be eliminated and ruled out, the progress is still on going in the coming future. Industries like publishing, actually book stores are at stake. Netherheless, it is believed that the change of medium to acquire knowledge does not necessarily diminish the importance of reading. Reading is still the main and crucial way for us to pass on knowledge, and develop ourselves and the society. The form may be changed from printed books to ebooks; from actual shop to online shop, but the core remains unchanged.
Printed books and ebooks would be co-existed and could not replace each other in the coming future as they both contain irreplaceable advantages for readers. The market is big enough to nurture both as they provide different kinds of satisfaction to readers. The competition between the two would force their perfection as publishers would keep strengthening their advantages. For printed books, it is expected to be more creative in production, to improve on readers experience, like paper with smell and special texture. For ebooks, it is expected to be improved by its overall reading experience and add-on features.
For actual bookstores and online bookstores, it is expected to be focused on transforming to omni-platforms and bring better customers purchasing experience. The need and feedback from customers would be crucial for the shops. More possibilities would appear in terms of customer experience, purchasing pattern and habits, transforming to comprehensive shops with expanded functions, including coffee areas, creative markets...etc. Also, big data will be used to analyze customers’ purchasing habits and predict future market trends. Shops then could adjust their marketing strategies accordingly. In the future, 3D printers may become home appliances, readers then could print their book according to their preference, like font, font size and type of paper, further personalized the book they purchased.
Despite all these, we have to re-think the habit of reading, as there are different challenges, there are different factors which would affect people to develop their reading habit, including political environment in Hong Kong, pressure on studying, busy work schedule...etc. By applying the suggestions in this paper, like improving reading experience, personalized books...etc, I believe people would be able to build their reading habit in the future.
